Post by Josh (CIN) on Nov 29, 2016 9:26:12 GMT -5
Here are some links to a few negotiating articles I found - I realize they are about fantasy sports, but the points remain the same.
Love, hate and the art of trade negotiation
Fantasy trade negotiation tips for the deadline
---------------------------------------
Note to reader: This guide was done by a GM in another league (USBA). It has some great information for trading in online leagues.
The most fun part of online leagues is trading. In scout leagues, it’s difficult to pin down actual true value. What a player may mean to you may not mean much to the other party and vice versa. So what’s the best way to go about it?
1. “Make an Offer”
Never bid against yourself. This is the biggest trap you can fall into. If somebody asks you what they want for my player, I typically don’t respond.
This can be a tactic to sell your player for less (though, not always is a GM being disingenuous; they simply may not what to offer). You don’t go to an auction and say ‘I want this’ without offering a price you’re bidding.
Make the other party--the one who wants your player--bid. Then negotiate from there. It’s perfectly okay to ask what a GM would want for a certain player, a baseline asking price, if you would. For example: I want 2 top prospects, or I want a mid-level prospect plus a RF who can hit lefties, and so on.
2) Value
What a player means to you is not equivalent to what he means to the other team. But, the most important part is what he means to your team, not to the other GM. He may be be a backup to the other team, but that’s not his value. His value is his worth to your team. What role does this player fill on your team? Who are my backups in the organization once I sell this player? Am I getting a player back that not only fills a need in my organization and/or replaces something I am trading away? What is the outgoing salary vs receiving salary? For example: If you are trading for a high dollar guy, you shouldn’t, also, be giving up ton of value in prospects.
3) Stars
You need Stars to win in USBA. Plain and simple. Young and old. Young ones, you have to be careful you are not trading them too soon. Young players, in general, take at least two seasons to really show they’ve got. It’s important to judge stats not too harshly. Be patient. Have a long-term vision. You have to throw them into the fire for a while. The Hines’/Eler’s of the world are the exception, not the rule.
4) Stats
Don’t overvalue stats, but don’t undervalue them, either. I pretty much ignore stats for minor leaguers. Minor league statistics isn’t indicative of future performance. Check out Eduardo Diaz’ minor league statistics compared to his SL statistics last year. Shocking stuff huh? I’ve observed this kind of thing in a few files. The reason being, stats require a lot of context. What’s his morale? what’s his expected role (e.g. does he expect to be in the Majors)? What’s the defense at the level he’s playing? What’s his BABIP/GB rate? What’s his home park? There are a lot of things that can affect a player’s statistics and since this is baseball, luck is always in play.
In the case of Eduardo Diaz, I realized a couple of things: A) he was angry and in his mind felt ‘ready’ b) wanted to be in the Majors so I gave him a shot at age 20, and his ratings have gotten better since. Statistical anomalies are relatively common i.e. stats can vary year to year, provided, the player hasn’t completely fallen off.
5) Advice
Don’t be afraid to ask for advice. I have been in the league 4 seasons, won back-to-back promotions and still I am not sure on players sometimes. I made a big trade recently that I sought advice for outside the league, because I wanted a completely unbiased opinion. I even talk to couple of USBA’ers rather frequently about general value.
There are plenty of guys in USBA that would be willing to offer unbiased advice.
6) Patience
Don’t trade your young players because you desperately want to win now. What’s your team outlook 3-4 years from now? Have a long-term vision and stick to it.
You have to suck for a little while before you start winning again. I won the SL but gave away a few wins (not necessarily on purpose) because I wanted playing time for young players that I felt had a long-term role. So what was and is my goal? To ensure proper development of all of my young players/prospects and ensure that they all peak at the same time, ‘grow up together’. If achieving that goal costs me some wins here and there, so be it. Long-term winning is the plan.
7) What are prospects worth anyway?
If you are trading a veteran player, say that he’s a 5 star player, he’s not equivalent to a 5 star prospect. You are underselling your vet. The more equivalent value would be, at least, Two-5 star prospects (and maybe even more depending on the player). Reason being: attrition rate. A sure thing is always worth more.
This isn’t a calculated figure, but a general guess based on experience. One of the two prospects you just traded for will fizzle out. Generally, 1 out of 3 of your prospects will pan out. If you are very good and/or lucky, that figure goes up to 2 out of 3. They certainly will not all become stars. Trust me on that.
Generally, you want to target prospects that have performed at the higher levels, rather than ones who look sexy in the lower minors. Attrition rate. Attrition rate. Attrition rate.
For your IFA prospects? The attrition rate is extremely high. If I said 25% would pan-out, that’s probably a high figure.
8. MAKE PLAYERS AVAILABLE TO ENTIRE LEAGUE
It usually best to make a player available to the entire league before trading him away to an inquiring team. This will help you determine the true trade value for that player and give you an idea if the offer made by the inquiring team is too low (or possible too high which you would then want to accept as quick as possible). However, if you determine the trade offer is too low, it will help you get better value for that player.
9) HAVE FUN
Have fun, stupid. This is supposed to be fun. Don’t overthink it. Don’t make trades when you’re bored, either.
I won’t lie, I’ve done that before.
commish
Site Admin
Love, hate and the art of trade negotiation
Fantasy trade negotiation tips for the deadline
---------------------------------------
Note to reader: This guide was done by a GM in another league (USBA). It has some great information for trading in online leagues.
The most fun part of online leagues is trading. In scout leagues, it’s difficult to pin down actual true value. What a player may mean to you may not mean much to the other party and vice versa. So what’s the best way to go about it?
1. “Make an Offer”
Never bid against yourself. This is the biggest trap you can fall into. If somebody asks you what they want for my player, I typically don’t respond.
This can be a tactic to sell your player for less (though, not always is a GM being disingenuous; they simply may not what to offer). You don’t go to an auction and say ‘I want this’ without offering a price you’re bidding.
Make the other party--the one who wants your player--bid. Then negotiate from there. It’s perfectly okay to ask what a GM would want for a certain player, a baseline asking price, if you would. For example: I want 2 top prospects, or I want a mid-level prospect plus a RF who can hit lefties, and so on.
2) Value
What a player means to you is not equivalent to what he means to the other team. But, the most important part is what he means to your team, not to the other GM. He may be be a backup to the other team, but that’s not his value. His value is his worth to your team. What role does this player fill on your team? Who are my backups in the organization once I sell this player? Am I getting a player back that not only fills a need in my organization and/or replaces something I am trading away? What is the outgoing salary vs receiving salary? For example: If you are trading for a high dollar guy, you shouldn’t, also, be giving up ton of value in prospects.
3) Stars
You need Stars to win in USBA. Plain and simple. Young and old. Young ones, you have to be careful you are not trading them too soon. Young players, in general, take at least two seasons to really show they’ve got. It’s important to judge stats not too harshly. Be patient. Have a long-term vision. You have to throw them into the fire for a while. The Hines’/Eler’s of the world are the exception, not the rule.
4) Stats
Don’t overvalue stats, but don’t undervalue them, either. I pretty much ignore stats for minor leaguers. Minor league statistics isn’t indicative of future performance. Check out Eduardo Diaz’ minor league statistics compared to his SL statistics last year. Shocking stuff huh? I’ve observed this kind of thing in a few files. The reason being, stats require a lot of context. What’s his morale? what’s his expected role (e.g. does he expect to be in the Majors)? What’s the defense at the level he’s playing? What’s his BABIP/GB rate? What’s his home park? There are a lot of things that can affect a player’s statistics and since this is baseball, luck is always in play.
In the case of Eduardo Diaz, I realized a couple of things: A) he was angry and in his mind felt ‘ready’ b) wanted to be in the Majors so I gave him a shot at age 20, and his ratings have gotten better since. Statistical anomalies are relatively common i.e. stats can vary year to year, provided, the player hasn’t completely fallen off.
5) Advice
Don’t be afraid to ask for advice. I have been in the league 4 seasons, won back-to-back promotions and still I am not sure on players sometimes. I made a big trade recently that I sought advice for outside the league, because I wanted a completely unbiased opinion. I even talk to couple of USBA’ers rather frequently about general value.
There are plenty of guys in USBA that would be willing to offer unbiased advice.
6) Patience
Don’t trade your young players because you desperately want to win now. What’s your team outlook 3-4 years from now? Have a long-term vision and stick to it.
You have to suck for a little while before you start winning again. I won the SL but gave away a few wins (not necessarily on purpose) because I wanted playing time for young players that I felt had a long-term role. So what was and is my goal? To ensure proper development of all of my young players/prospects and ensure that they all peak at the same time, ‘grow up together’. If achieving that goal costs me some wins here and there, so be it. Long-term winning is the plan.
7) What are prospects worth anyway?
If you are trading a veteran player, say that he’s a 5 star player, he’s not equivalent to a 5 star prospect. You are underselling your vet. The more equivalent value would be, at least, Two-5 star prospects (and maybe even more depending on the player). Reason being: attrition rate. A sure thing is always worth more.
This isn’t a calculated figure, but a general guess based on experience. One of the two prospects you just traded for will fizzle out. Generally, 1 out of 3 of your prospects will pan out. If you are very good and/or lucky, that figure goes up to 2 out of 3. They certainly will not all become stars. Trust me on that.
Generally, you want to target prospects that have performed at the higher levels, rather than ones who look sexy in the lower minors. Attrition rate. Attrition rate. Attrition rate.
For your IFA prospects? The attrition rate is extremely high. If I said 25% would pan-out, that’s probably a high figure.
8. MAKE PLAYERS AVAILABLE TO ENTIRE LEAGUE
It usually best to make a player available to the entire league before trading him away to an inquiring team. This will help you determine the true trade value for that player and give you an idea if the offer made by the inquiring team is too low (or possible too high which you would then want to accept as quick as possible). However, if you determine the trade offer is too low, it will help you get better value for that player.
9) HAVE FUN
Have fun, stupid. This is supposed to be fun. Don’t overthink it. Don’t make trades when you’re bored, either.
I won’t lie, I’ve done that before.
commish
Site Admin